CONTINUED FINANCE AND
BUSINESS OPTIMISM DRIVES
UK JOBS CONFIDENCE HIGHER
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q4 2004
- Highest overall employer confidence since 2001;
- UK confidence strongest in Europe
Hiring confidence amongst UK employers in the Finance and Business
Services sector continues to grow with these employers reporting
their highest optimism at any time since 1998. This growing confidence
has helped drive UK job prospects to a Net Employment Outlook of
+18% - the highest national outlook since the end of 2001. In addition,
the UK is also posting the most positive outlook of any of the European
countries surveyed.
Hazel Detsiny, director at Manpower, says: “In spite of increases
to interest rates and concerns about the future of the housing market,
companies remain confident about their future hiring intentions.
The continued upturn is clearly evidenced through the growing confidence
amongst employers in the City and business sectors where +23% of
employers are looking to increase their headcount. At the same time,
confidence is evident in other non-service based industries such
as the manufacturing sector where jobs confidence has hit a seven-year
high.”
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey measures employer hiring
intentions for the quarter ahead: October to December 2004. 2,500
UK employers were surveyed in the UK and over 35,000 employers in
19 countries and territories globally. The Net Employment Outlook¹
for the UK in Q4 is +18%. When seasonal variations are taken into
account, the outlook is +14%².
Looking at the figures in more depth, the positive situation in
the Financial Services sub-sector is reinforced by the fact that
just two percent of employers are looking to cut back their workforce
in the next quarter with 18 percent of employers looking to take
on more staff. This is also the highest outlook for this sector
in Europe. Confidence is also apparent in the Hotel and Retail sector
where an Net Employment Outlook of +17% is the highest recorded
outlook since the end of 2001 and represents an increase of 10 percentage
points over the last year at this time.
“Employer hiring intentions have generally been stable since
the start of 2002 with no sign of the peaks and troughs of the mid-late
1990s,” continues Detsiny. “These results indicate that
companies have confidence to hire staff and that job seekers are
happy to move jobs. As opposed to new job creation, we are seeing
a higher churn of workers in the labour market moving from company
to company. With low wage inflation, employers are having to review
the benefits they offer such as flexible working, training, pensions
and healthcare to hold onto the best people.”
Across the UK, eight of the nine industry sectors surveyed by Manpower
are planning to take on staff next quarter. Employers in Transport
and Communications; Finance and Business Services; and Manufacturing,
all reported figures above the national average. The Agriculture
sector is the only sector to expect cutbacks with a Net Employment
Outlook of -8% - a decline of nine percentage points over the last
quarter and a year-on-year decrease of four percentage points.
Employers in all twelve of the regions surveyed intend to take on
more staff in the quarter ahead. Employers in the South West are
the most optimistic with 32% of employers looking to expand their
workforce. Conversely, employers in the West Midlands, London and
Scotland are the least optimistic: all three regions are reporting
a Net Employment Outlook of +8%.
Of the 11 European countries surveyed, all but Germany (-2%) and
Italy (-1%) recorded positive hiring intentions. The strongest outlooks
in Europe are reported in the UK followed by Ireland (+14%), Sweden
(+9%), Norway (+7%) and Belgium (+7%).
Looking at the results from a global level, 17 of the 19 countries
and territories surveyed by Manpower anticipate positive Net Employment
Outlooks for the three months ahead. New Zealand (+29%) and Hong
Kong (+25%) report the most buoyant forecasts. Employers in 14 of
the 19 countries expect more hiring compared to this time last year.
- ENDS -
NOTES TO EDITORS
¹A ‘Net Employment Outlook’ is calculated by subtracting
those employers who plan to reduce staffing levels from those who
plan to hire staff. A positive result indicates that more employers
plan to increase rather than decrease staffing levels; a negative
result reflects the opposite. [% increase (21%) - % decrease (5%)
= 16%]
²Seasonally adjusted figures are those that have been modified
to take into account variations in figures that can occur due to
the seasons, i.e. Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter.
For international comparisons and visual library with graphs, visit
www.manpower.com.
About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Manpower is a leading recruiter of permanent, temporary and contract
workforces, employing around 100,000 people in the UK each year.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, [formerly Manpower’s
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects] is conducted quarterly
to measure employers’ hiring intentions for the forthcoming
quarter. Unique in its predictive nature, the Survey is widely used
in Government and industry, including The Bank of England’s
Monetary Policy Committee as evidence of labour market activity.
The Survey has been running for more than 40 years and is based
on 2,500 interviews with public and private employers in the UK
and 35,000 interviews collectively across 18 countries worldwide.
See www.manpower.com for global reports.
About Manpower
Manpower is the UK’s leading workforce management company,
specialising in permanent and temporary recruitment, HR services,
managed services, outsourcing and HR consultancy.
Manpower has been established in the UK since 1956 and today works
with organisations in both the public and private sector. Manpower’s
UK-wide network of 300 offices allows the company to meet the needs
of local and national customers. This includes numerous small and
medium sized enterprises, as well as larger organisations such as
BMW, BT, Heinz, Hertfordshire County Council, IBM, National Blood
Service, New Deal South Wales, Royal Mail and Xerox.
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through
improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers
to concentrate on their core business.
Manpower has a highly skilled workforce of 100,000 temporary employees
who stay loyal to the company (and its customers) thanks to best
in class employment benefits. These include a contract of employment
and a free e-learning tool offering staff over 1,000 courses in
a diverse range of subjects, keeping Manpower’s workforce
up to date with today’s ever-changing working environment.
For further information, please contact the Manpower Press Office
on 020 8870 2214. Or you can e-mail us by selecting Press
Office from the Contact
Us page.
