Jobs bounce back in Finance & Business sector
Net Employment Outlook of +12%
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2005
UK employers look set to continue hiring over the next three months, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Optimism is led by the Finance & Business Services sector as well as from employers in the Construction sector. At the same time, the Hotel & Retail sectors are notably more cautious about their hiring intentions.
The survey results, released today, show that employers in the Finance & Business Services sector are reporting their highest Q3 jobs confidence since 1998 with a Net Employment Outlook¹ of +21%. This continues the strong performance of this sector in recent periods and corrects the dip last quarter when the Outlook fell by ten percentage points.
Employers in the Construction sector are also positive about their hiring plans with +20% planning to add to their workforce. This represents an increase of four percentage points over the last year.
Employers in the Hotel & Retail sector, whilst still reporting a positive Outlook, are notably more restrained with an Outlook of +3%, representing a decrease of seven percentage points over the year. Closer examination of the data shows caution on the high street, with retailers reporting an Outlook of -6% - a year-on-year decrease of 13 percentage points.
Mark Cahill, managing director at Manpower, says: “The UK employment market has been well known for its resilience and stability and this picture looks set to continue. The strong results from the finance and business sector are good for the UK as they are often indicators of wider business confidence.
“The much-reported troubles on the high street are reflected in more cautious hiring intentions from retailers, as consumers tighten their belts and rein in spending. This is the first time in recent history we’ve seen such a fall in confidence from the high street, but it is too early to say whether this is a short-term blip or a more longer-term dip.
“The Outlook away from the high street remains positive. The UK benefits from its flexible labour market and this, combined with a stable economy, is a sound basis for business: good for employers and good for job seekers.”
The report shows that employers are reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +12% for the three months to September. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Outlook is also +12%².
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the world’s most extensive, forward-looking employment survey. The survey has been running in the UK for 39 years and measures employer hiring intentions for the quarter ahead: July to September 2005. 2,100 employers in the UK were surveyed, and over 45,000 employers in 23 countries and territories globally.
The resilience of the UK employment market is reinforced by figures from the West Midlands where, in spite of the closure of MG Rover, the employment outlook remains positive. Comments Cahill: “The number of employers looking to increase their recruitment in the West Midlands has increased by nine percentage points over the same time last year, which could be strongly supported by the area’s diverse industry base.”
Across the UK, eight of the nine industry sectors surveyed by Manpower are planning to take on staff next quarter. Employers in Finance and Business Services at +21% (up five percentage points year on year); Construction at +20% (up four percentage points year on year); Transport at +15% (down six percentage points year on year), all reported figures above the national average. Employers in the Agriculture sector are the only ones to expect cutbacks, with a Net Employment Outlook of -1% - a decline of two percentage points over the last year.
Employers in all twelve regions surveyed intend to take on more staff in the quarter ahead. Scotland is the most optimistic region, with +30% of employers looking to expand their workforce – an increase of 15 percentage points over the year and one percentage point over the last quarter. Conversely, in the North West, East Anglia, South East, Yorkshire & Humberside employers are the least optimistic reporting Net Employment Outlooks below the national average.
Of the 12 European countries surveyed, employers in all but Switzerland (0%) are reporting positive hiring intentions. The strongest hiring intentions in Europe are reported in Ireland (+20%), Norway (+17%) and UK (+12%), while hiring is expected to be less robust in Italy (+3%), the Netherlands (+3%), France (+4%) and Germany (+4%). Of particular note is that employers in Germany are reporting their first positive Net Employment Outlook since the survey began in Germany in 2003.
Looking at the results from a global level, 22 of the 23 countries and territories surveyed by Manpower anticipate positive Net Employment Outlooks for the three months ahead. Employers in India (+34%), Taiwan (+24%) and New Zealand (+23%) report the most buoyant forecasts. Employers in nine of the countries expect more hiring compared to this time last year, based on seasonally adjusted data.
¹A ‘Net Employment Outlook’ is calculated by subtracting those employers who plan to reduce staffing levels from those who plan to hire staff. A positive result indicates that more employers plan to increase rather than decrease staffing levels; a negative result reflects the opposite. [% increase (19%) - % decrease (4%) = 15%]
²Seasonally adjusted figures are those that have been modified to take into account variations in figures that can occur due to the seasons, i.e. Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter.
For international comparisons and visual library with graphs, visit www.manpower.com.
About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the only forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The Survey has been running for more than 40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with more than 45,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 23 countries and territories: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries were added to the program in 2003. New Zealand joined the program in 2004 and China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan were added in 2005. For more information, visit the Manpower Inc. Web site at www.manpower.com and enter the Press Room.
About Manpower
Manpower is the UK’s leading workforce management company, specialising in permanent and temporary recruitment, HR services, managed services, outsourcing and HR consultancy.
Manpower has been established in the UK since 1956 and today works with organisations in both the public and private sector. Manpower’s UK-wide network of 300 offices allows the company to meet the needs of local and national customers. This includes numerous small and medium sized enterprises, as well as larger organisations such as BMW, BT, Heinz, Hertfordshire County Council, IBM, National Health Service, New Deal South Wales, Royal Mail and Xerox.
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core business.
Manpower has a highly skilled workforce of 100,000 temporary employees who stay loyal to the company (and its customers) thanks to best in class employment benefits. These include a contract of employment and a free e-learning tool offering staff over 1,000 courses in a diverse range of subjects, keeping Manpower’s workforce up to date with today’s ever-changing working environment.
