UK JOB OUTLOOK WEAKENS BUT AMONGST BEST IN EUROPE
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2003
Manpower today announced the results of its quarterly Employment Outlook
survey of more than 30,000 employers across 18 countries. UK employment
prospects are at their worst for the third quarter since 1999, but
these are some of the strongest country results in Europe.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (formerly, the Quarterly Survey
of Employment Prospects) provides a forecast of employer hiring intentions
for the quarter ahead: July to September 2003. The Net Employment
Outlook¹ (the balance of employers forecasting to take on more
staff) for the UK in quarter three, is +13%.
Tony Howard, Managing Director of Manpower comments: “Undoubtedly
we are facing a challenging business environment but the encouraging
news is that the Manpower Survey shows employment prospects in the
UK are holding up. The UK’s forecast is one of the strongest
in Europe.”
Across Europe, Spain and Ireland joined the UK in reporting the most
positive results (+13%). However, when taking into account the historical
data available for Ireland, these numbers only represent a slight
increase in activity over the previous two quarters. Elsewhere, Italy
has a Net Employment Outlook of +8% but other European countries have
weaker prospects, including Germany (-10%) and Belgium (-2%). In the
Americas, Canada reported the highest results in the Survey (+30%).
The US, despite a positive result of +11%, has reported its lowest
Net Employment Outlook for quarter three in more than 12 years. In
Asia Pacific, Australia’s prospects are positive but the forecast
in Japan and Hong Kong is considerably lower (-4% and -5% respectively).
Analysis in the UK shows 7 of the 9 sectors are planning to take on
staff in the quarter ahead, although employers in both Transport &
Communications (-5%) and Agriculture (-1%) are planning to reduce
staffing levels. For the second consecutive quarter Utilities has
the most positive result when compared to the other sectors surveyed
in the report, with a Net Employment Outlook of +34%. Construction
continues to perform well reporting its second highest quarter three
result in the last 5 years. Manufacturing is the only sector with
both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year predicted hiring increases.
But compared to Europe, UK figures are favourable. Adds Howard: “In
the UK, organisations in the Industry sector category which includes
manufacturing and utilities have reported the strongest hiring forecast
across Europe. Similarly, in Services, UK employers have predicted
the third highest Net Employment Outlook, with Spain and Ireland leading
the way.”
All UK regions are planning to take on more staff in the second quarter.
However, job prospects look most promising in the South West (+24%,
up quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year), the East (+23%, up 5 percentage
points year-on-year) and Scotland (+21%, the same as last quarter),
all of which are significantly above the national average of +13%.
The outlook in the UK is gloomier elsewhere. London, with a Net Employment
Outlook of +3%, has the weakest employer hiring intentions compared
to all regions. Although these have dropped by 16 percentage points
since last quarter, London has actually performed slightly better
than this time last year, when the Net Employment Outlook was –1%.
Elsewhere, Yorkshire & Humberside reported a 12% point year-on-year
drop in prospects, with the East Midlands reporting the largest annual
decrease compared to other UK regions.
For further information, please contact the Manpower Press Office
on 020 8870 2214. Or you can e-mail us by selecting Press Office
from the Contact
Us page.
