UK HOTEL & RETAIL SECTOR BRINGS JOB PROSPECTS FOR Q4 2003 DOWN
TO TEN YEAR LOW
Global Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q4 2003
More UK companies are forecasting
to take on staff than letting them go this quarter, however the
UK is set to have the lowest results for employer hiring intentions
in Q4 since 1993, according to Manpower, the UK’s leading
recruitment and staffing supplier.
Comments Hazel Detsiny, a Director at Manpower: “Employers
in the Hotel and Retail sector are reporting their lowest final
quarter employer hiring intentions in the last 12 years, contributing
significantly to the drop in job prospects in the UK. Q4 prospects
are usually extremely buoyant due to increased hiring activity,
which takes place over the Christmas period to help meet consumer
demand.“
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey provides a forecast of employer
hiring intentions for the quarter ahead: October to December 2003.
2,500 UK employers were surveyed in the UK and over 35,000 employers
in 18 countries globally. The Net Employment Outlook¹ (the
balance of employers forecasting to take on more staff) for the
UK in Q4 is +12%.
Adds Detsiny, “It appears that the renewed optimism in the
economy is not translating into as many jobs as in previous years.
However, despite this, the UK’s job prospects are the strongest
in Europe for the second quarter running. If we recognise that the
UK tends to be one or two quarters behind the US in forecast hiring
activity, there is optimism as employer confidence there appears
to have improved.”
Across the UK, seven of the nine sectors surveyed are planning to
take on staff next quarter, with only the Agriculture sector planning
to reduce staff and Mining forecasting no change in staffing levels.
The results for the Manufacturing sector are noticeably depressed:
with an Outlook of +7%, the sector is 5% points below the Q4 average
for the last 12 years (+12%) and is the third lowest Q4 result in
ten years. This prediction corresponds with a trend developing as
highlighted by Government figures: jobs fell in Manufacturing to
an all time low of 3.5 million workers in the three months leading
up to June 2003 indicating that growth has slowed in this sector.²
All eleven UK regions surveyed are planning to increase staffing
levels in Q4 2003. The East Midlands tops all regions with an Outlook
of +26%, significantly higher than the average for the region of
+17% over the last five years. The South West continues its strong
performance from last quarter with a Net Outlook of +25%. Disappointing
results were reported by employers in Scotland which only predicted
a job Outlook of +4%. London (+9%) continues to report poor results
with the worst Q4 results for the region and significantly less
than the Q4 average for London of +26% over the last five years.
While Employment Outlooks in Europe vary, the majority of countries
reported positive Net increases. The UK showed the greatest optimism
together with Sweden with a Net job Outlook of +12%. By contrast,
in Germany (-8%) and Ireland (-4%), a greater proportion of employers
expected to decrease staffing levels than increase. Austria’s
(0) employment levels are expected to remain stable.
Globally, hiring activity in the Asia Pacific region as a whole
improved as employers in Hong Kong (+5%), Japan (+2%) and Singapore
(+3%) reported intentions to increase staffing levels. The Americas
saw Mexico employer hiring intentions (+14%) more optimistic than
the US (+11%) and Canada (+8%). When seasonal adjustments³
are applied to the survey data for United States (+4 when seasonally
adjusted) and the UK (-3% when seasonally adjusted), a more meaningful
view of the data is revealed, with anticipated hiring activity moving
in opposite directions through to the end of the year.
NOTES TO EDITORS
¹A ‘Net Employment Outlook’ is calculated by subtracting
those employers who plan to reduce staffing levels from those who
plan to hire staff. A positive result indicates that more employers
plan to increase rather than decrease staffing levels; a negative
result reflects the opposite.
²Office of National Statistics labour market figures for three
months to June 2003.
³ Seasonally adjusted figures are those that have been modified
to take into account variations in figures that can occur due to
the seasons, i.e. Winter, Summer, Autumn and Spring.
Manpower is a leading recruiter of specialist, flexible and contract
workforces, employing around 100,000 people in the UK each year.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, [formerly Manpower’s
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects] is conducted quarterly
to measure employers’ hiring intentions for the forthcoming
quarter. Unique in its predictive nature, the Survey is widely
used in Government and industry, including The Bank of England’s
Monetary Policy Committee as evidence of labour market activity.
The Survey has been running for more than 40 years and is based
on 2,500 interviews with public and private employers in the UK
and 35,000 interviews collectively across 18 countries worldwide.
See www.manpower.com
for global reports.
About Manpower
Manpower is the UK’s leading workforce management company,
specialising in recruitment, HR services, managed services, outsourcing
and HR consultancy.
Manpower has been established in the UK since 1956 and today works
with organisations in both the public and private sector. Manpower’s
UK-wide network of 300 branches allows the company to meet the
needs of local and national customers. This includes numerous
small and medium sized enterprises, as well as larger organisations
such as BMW, BT, Heinz, Hertfordshire County Council, IBM, National
Blood Service, New Deal South Wales, Royal Mail and Xerox.
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity
through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling
customers to concentrate on their core business.
Manpower achieves this by retaining a highly skilled workforce
of 100,000 temporary employees who stay loyal to the company (and
its customers) thanks to best in class employment benefits. These
include a contract of employment and free online training at all
sites nationwide. Manpower’s online Global Learning Centre
offers staff over 3,000 courses in a diverse range of subjects,
keeping Manpower’s workforce up to date with today’s
ever-changing working environment.
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