LONDON JOB CONFIDENCE LEADS UK RECRUITMENT
INTENTIONS
Global Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2004
Confidence amongst employers
in London has reached its highest point since the start of 2001,
with a Net figure of +15% of London employers expecting to take
on staff in the first quarter of 2004, according to the latest Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey.
Hazel Detsiny, director at Manpower, says: “We’re seeing
careful employer hiring intentions amongst UK businesses. The news
from London is especially encouraging, where the outlook for jobs
is back to pre-September 11th 2001 levels. London tends to lead
employment growth across the country – and the good news is
that many regions are also recording positive outlooks. The UK is
also holding up well internationally recording some of the strongest
hiring forecasts not only in Europe but also across the world.”
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey provides a forecast of employer
hiring intentions for the quarter ahead: January to March 2004.
2,500 UK employers were surveyed in the UK and over 35,000 employers
in 18 countries globally. The Net Employment Outlook¹ (the
balance of employers forecasting to take on more staff) for the
UK in Q1 is +9%. This positive hiring outlook brightens further
when seasonal variations² are removed from the data and the
Net Employment Outlook increases to +16% for the quarter ahead.
Eleven of the twelve regions in the UK are planning to take on staff.
Wales is the most positive region with an outlook of +24% representing
a year-on-year increase of 15 percentage points. The North East
also reports a positive outlook of +17%, which is considerably higher
than the Q1 average for the region over the last six years (+5%).
Northern Ireland (who’s figures are included in the UK report
for the first time this quarter) shows a positive outlook of +17%.
However, disappointing results were recorded in the East Midlands
(+4%) where the region was down quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year,
by 22 and 24 percentage points respectively.
Across the UK, seven of the nine industry sectors surveyed are planning
to take on staff next quarter. Detsiny adds: “There is a varied
yet promising picture across the UK sectors. The strength of Transport
& Communications is encouraging to see, however it is the strong
outlook from the Hotels & Retail sector which is a particularly
encouraging sign: the increase in staffing levels here is to meet
growing consumer demand. This is a good sign for candidates looking
to work in this sector in the New Year.”
The Transport & Communications sector is recording a strong
outlook of +13% representing an increase of 11 percentage points
over the year. The Hotels & Retail sector is showing a positive
outlook of +8%, which is markedly above the Q1 average of –5%
for the last 12 years. Construction is the most positive sector
surveyed with an outlook of +15%.
The Manufacturing sector continues to perform poorly with an outlook
of +3%, which represents a year-on-year fall of 10 percentage points.
This poor figure reflects the lack of employer optimism recently
cited by the CBI, which predicts that 36,000 industrial jobs will
be lost between December 2003 and February 2004.³
Looking at the European picture, the Net Employment Outlook figures
are largely positive with the UK and Spain posting the most optimistic
forecasts (+9%) just behind those reported by Norway (+10%). Other
European countries are reporting stable hiring levels with the exception
of Germany, which has its most pessimistic outlook for three quarters
at -14%, whilst Ireland has rebounded to an outlook of +3% from
its previous negative outlook for Q4 2003.
In the Americas, Canada reported stable hiring intentions (+1%)
in line with their historical first quarter trends whilst the US
continued to perform strongly with an outlook of +7%. However, when
seasonal variations are removed from these figures, the outlook
increases over the last quarter from +10% to +13%.
At the Global level employers in Hong Kong are recording a noticeable
increase in outlook to +12% thanks to strong growth in the Services
sector. The labour market is expected to be stable elsewhere in
the Asia Pacific region with Japan, Singapore, and Australia reporting
only slight shifts in the job outlook for the first three months
of the year.
- ENDS -
NOTES TO EDITORS
¹A ‘Net Employment Outlook’ is calculated by subtracting
those employers who plan to reduce staffing levels from those who
plan to hire staff. A positive result indicates that more employers
plan to increase rather than decrease staffing levels; a negative
result reflects the opposite.
²Seasonally adjusted figures are those that have been modified
to take into account variations in figures that can occur due to
the seasons, i.e. Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter.
³CBI/Experian Business Strategies Regional Trends (12 Nov 2003)
Commentary and full details on every sector and region can found
in the survey report at www.manpower.co.uk or by calling the Press
Office on 020 8870 2214 / jeremy@saltlondon.com; nicky@saltlondon.com
For international comparisons and visual library with graphs, visit
www.manpower.com
About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Manpower is a leading recruiter of permanent, temporary and contract
workforces, employing around 100,000 people in the UK each year.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, [formerly Manpower’s
Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects] is conducted quarterly
to measure employers’ hiring intentions for the forthcoming
quarter. Unique in its predictive nature, the Survey is widely used
in Government and industry, including The Bank of England’s
Monetary Policy Committee as evidence of labour market activity.
The Survey has been running for more than 40 years and is based
on 2,500 interviews with public and private employers in the UK
and 35,000 interviews collectively across 18 countries worldwide.
See www.manpower.com
for global reports.
About Manpower
Manpower is the UK’s leading workforce management company,
specialising in permanent and temporary recruitment, HR services,
managed services, outsourcing and HR consultancy.
Manpower has been established in the UK since 1956 and today works
with organisations in both the public and private sector. Manpower’s
UK-wide network of 300 offices allows the company to meet the needs
of local and national customers. This includes numerous small and
medium sized enterprises, as well as larger organisations such as
BMW, BT, Heinz, Hertfordshire County Council, IBM, National Blood
Service, New Deal South Wales, Royal Mail and Xerox.
The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through
improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers
to concentrate on their core business.
Manpower has a highly skilled workforce of 100,000 temporary employees
who stay loyal to the company (and its customers) thanks to best
in class employment benefits. These include a contract of employment
and a free e-learning toll offering staff over 1,000 courses in
a diverse range of subjects, keeping Manpower’s workforce
up to date with today’s ever-changing working environment.
For further information, please contact the Manpower Press Office
on 020 8870 2214. Or you can e-mail us by selecting Press
Office from the Contact
Us page.
